24 storylines: Expectations for Wemby in Year 2

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We’re counting down 24 key storylines heading into the 2024-25 NBA season. Our senior analysts will dissect a new topic each day as we help you get ready for opening night on Oct. 22.
Here is storyline No. 5:
He dazzled as a rookie. What will Victor Wembanyama’s second NBA season look like?
Let’s revisit the San Antonio phenom’s first NBA go-around to establish a floor for this topic. Simply put, he had one of the best rookie seasons ever, as we wrote about last spring.
Based on traditional stats, if Wembanyama never improved at all and merely played at the same level we saw in 2023-24 for, oh, another 15 seasons, he would end up with across-the-board career averages — 21.4 ppg, 10.6 rpg and 3.9 apg — matched or topped by only three legends in league history. That select club: Charles Barkley (22.1 ppg, 11.7 rpg, 3.9 apg), Elgin Baylor (27.4 ppg, 13.5 rpg, 4.3 apg) and, of course, Wilt Chamberlain (30.1 ppg, 22.9 rpg, 4.4 apg).
Add to that his demonstrated defense — Wembanyama led the NBA in blocked shots (3.6 bpg) and averaged 1.2 steals per game — and the pleasure of watching the slender 7-foot-4 big man intimidate inside while ball-handling and launching from outside (admittedly, just 32.5% on 3FGA). Verdict: Overwhelming success even if he plateaus right where he is.
Now consider all the reasons Wembanyama should be better this season. And next season and the season after that, and so on.
He enters Year 2 physically bigger and stronger. His time with the French national team, ultimately winning an Olympic silver medal, formed part of a heavy-duty summer of court work. That came on the heels of a year’s worth of NBA wiles and wisdom.
The referees have acclimated to “The Alien,” too, meaning they know his game better. He averaged 5.2 free-throw attempts last season, good for 29th in the league. If he gets three more per game, he’d rank in the top five.
The arrival of Chris Paul should accelerate the refinement Wembanyama is already pursuing. The veteran point guard has boosted other big men’s games, especially by helping them be more efficient in pick-and-rolls. Overall, Paul should help Wemby get better shots and weed out recklessly showy ones. His lob throwdowns could double.
The most impressive piece of Wembanyama’s future Hall of Fame puzzle, however, might have to wait until Year 3, Year 4 or beyond. That’s winning. San Antonio’s inability to improve as a group — an identical 22-60 record as before the big guy arrived — was a demerit to them and him.
Rookies of his repute have historically boosted their teams’ performances: Tim Duncan +36, Larry Bird +32, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar +29 and so on. Winning also unlocks the most important awards such as the Kia MVP and Finals MVP. So for Wembanyama to etch significant, lasting highlights — not the video clips that only hold cache space until the next crazy plays come along — his size and skills will need to translate into victories more than defeats.
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Steve Aschburner has written about the NBA since 1980. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on X.
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